Bachelor thesis, 2025-2026
Forecasting capacity consumption in manufacturing
Manufacturers plan capacity with static routing times that drift away from what actually happens on the shop floor. I built a pipeline that forecasts weekly capacity consumption per work center, trained on a three-year synthetic dataset (31,949 rows, 20 work centers), and compared five models from naive persistence to XGBoost.
0.355
Test R² for XGBoost with planning-state features from the ERP system
up from 0.204 without them, ahead of the ARIMA baseline at 0.271
R² on the log-transformed target, 460 work-center weeks in the test set.
Python, XGBoost, scikit-learn, pandas, NumPy
Read the thesis (PDF)